A seismic shift in British politics is on the horizon, as a YouGov Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll released on 26 June 2025 projects that Reform UK would emerge as the largest party in a general election held today, securing 271 seats in a hung parliament. Labour, despite their landslide victory in 2024, would plummet to 178 seats, while the Conservatives would collapse to a mere 46, falling behind the Liberal Democrats. This unprecedented poll, based on a sample of 11,500 people, underscores a growing public disillusionment with Labour’s governance and a surge in support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, driven by widespread frustration over key issues ignored or mishandled by the Labour government.
Labour’s Decline: A Catalogue of Failures
Labour’s rapid fall from grace, less than a year after their 2024 triumph, can be attributed to a series of policy missteps and broken promises that have alienated voters across the spectrum. The YouGov poll reveals that only 23% of Britons now support Labour, down 11 points from their 2024 vote share, with 62% disapproving of the government’s record. Even among Labour’s 2024 voters, dissatisfaction is rife, with 46% expressing disappointment in the government’s performance. Here are the key reasons why Labour is haemorrhaging support:
Failure to Tackle Illegal Immigration
Immigration remains the top concern for Britons, with 50% citing it as a critical issue in YouGov’s latest surveys, a figure that rises to 80% among Labour voters who have defected to Reform UK. Public discontent with immigration has reached record levels, with 70% of Britons stating that immigration over the past decade has been “too high,” and 43% believing it has been “mostly bad for the country.” Labour’s refusal to take decisive action on illegal immigration, particularly the ongoing small boat crossings in the Channel, has fuelled perceptions that the government prioritises immigrants over British citizens. Reform UK’s hardline stance on immigration, cited by 18% of potential voters as a key draw, has resonated strongly, particularly among older voters and Leave supporters, 46% of whom now consider voting for Reform.
Labour’s attempts to appeal to Reform voters with tougher immigration rhetoric have fallen flat, with only 4% of Reform supporters indicating they would consider voting Labour, while 79% outright reject the idea. This shift has been particularly damaging among working-class and older demographics, who feel Labour has failed to address their concerns about border control and national identity.
Benefit Cuts: An Attack on the Vulnerable
Labour’s proposed welfare reforms, particularly cuts to disability benefits like Personal Independence Payments (PIP), have sparked a massive backlash, including from within their own ranks. Over 126 Labour MPs—nearly one in three—have signed a “reasoned amendment” to block these cuts, fearing they will push vulnerable groups, including the disabled and elderly, into poverty. The scale of this rebellion, described by Sky News’ Beth Rigby as a “hot mess,” highlights Labour’s failure to consult adequately with affected communities or their own MPs. Critics argue that Labour’s focus on austerity-driven reforms sends a “mixed message,” particularly when juxtaposed with their manifesto pledges to champion disabled rights and reduce poverty.
The public’s disapproval is stark: only 23% approve of Labour’s record, and among Labour voters, 38% now view the government negatively. Reform UK has capitalised on this discontent, positioning itself as a defender of “average Britons,” with 7% of potential voters drawn to the party’s perceived representation of ordinary people.
Degradation of Free Speech
Concerns over free speech have also emerged as a significant issue, with many Britons perceiving Labour’s policies as stifling open discourse. The government’s approach to regulating social media has led to high-profile cases of individuals facing legal consequences for online posts, often with sentences perceived as disproportionately harsh. Critics point to a stark contrast between these penalties and the relatively lenient sentences handed to members of grooming gangs responsible for the mass exploitation of young girls, particularly in cases involving white English victims. This disparity has fuelled public outrage, with many viewing Labour’s priorities as misaligned and overly focused on political correctness at the expense of justice.
Reform UK’s unapologetic stance on free speech and its criticism of what it calls “woke” policies have struck a chord, particularly among voters who feel censored or marginalised by Labour’s approach. The party’s broader appeal as a “different” and “new” approach to politics, cited by 11% of potential voters, has helped it gain traction among those disillusioned with Labour’s perceived authoritarianism.
Economic Mismanagement and Broken Promises
Labour’s handling of the economy has further eroded public trust, with 71% of Britons saying the government is managing the economy poorly and 68% disapproving of its handling of inflation. Among Labour voters who have defected to Reform UK, 44% cite broken promises as a key reason for their switch, with 22% pointing to the lack of improvement in the cost of living. The government’s failure to deliver on manifesto commitments, such as reducing poverty and improving housing, has compounded this dissatisfaction, with only 28% of Labour voters believing the government is performing well.
Alienating Core Voters
Labour’s attempt to appeal to Reform UK voters by adopting tougher stances on immigration and welfare has backfired, alienating their progressive base. The proportion of Green voters willing to consider voting Labour has dropped from 38% to 24%, while 27% now rule it out entirely. Similarly, Labour has lost 7% of its 2024 voters to the Liberal Democrats and 6% to the Greens, reflecting a squeeze from both the left and the right. This fragmentation of support has left Labour struggling to maintain a cohesive voter coalition.
Reform UK’s Meteoric Rise
Reform UK’s projected 271 seats, a dramatic increase from the five they won in 2024, reflect their ability to capitalise on Labour’s missteps and the Conservatives’ collapse. The party’s 26% vote share, up 12 points from 2024, is driven by strong performances across regions like the East Midlands, East of England, and Yorkshire and the Humber. Nigel Farage’s personal appeal has also grown, with 32% of Britons now viewing him favourably, up from 28% in April, giving him a net favourability rating of -27, significantly better than Keir Starmer’s -46.
Reform’s success is particularly pronounced among Leave voters, with 53% supporting the party compared to 24% for the Conservatives. Older voters (50–64 and over-65s) and men are also more likely to back Reform, with 35% and 29% respectively considering the party. The party’s focus on immigration, national pride, and a rejection of establishment politics has positioned it as a viable alternative to both Labour and the Conservatives, though only 29% of Britons currently see Reform as a “main party.”
The Conservative Collapse
The Conservatives, now polling at just 18%, face their own crisis, with 27% of their 2024 voters switching to Reform UK. Kemi Badenoch’s leadership has failed to inspire, with her net favourability rating dropping to -31 as more Britons become familiar with her. Her reluctance to engage in frequent media appearances and lack of detailed policy proposals have left the party directionless, allowing Reform to dominate the right-of-centre vote.
A Hung Parliament and Uncertain Future
The YouGov MRP poll projects a hung parliament, with no single party securing an overall majority. Reform UK’s 271 seats fall short of the 326 needed, and while a Reform-Conservative coalition could achieve a mathematical majority in 9% of simulations, such a partnership remains contentious, with only 38% of Reform voters and 47% of Conservative voters supporting a merger. Labour’s potential alliances with the Liberal Democrats, Greens, or SNP are even less likely to secure a majority, highlighting the fragmented and volatile state of British politics.
As Labour grapples with internal rebellion, public discontent, and a failure to address key issues like immigration, welfare, and free speech, Reform UK has seized the moment, offering a bold alternative that resonates with an increasingly disillusioned electorate. With the next general election not due until 2029, Labour has time to regroup, but the YouGov poll serves as a stark warning: Keir Starmer’s government must address these failures or risk being overtaken by Nigel Farage’s insurgent force.
